USD/ZAR into the SARB MPC: three scenarios and what moves the rand

The market is split on whether the SARB cuts at the next MPC. Here's how I'm framing it:

Base case — hold with a dovish tone

Rand drifts with global risk sentiment. Range trading likely.

Bull rand — cut paired with lower inflation forecasts

Counter-intuitively the rand can firm if the cut is framed as credible disinflation and the dollar is soft globally.

Bear rand — surprise hawkish hold + risk-off

Watch US yields and Chinese data; ZAR is still a liquid proxy for EM risk.

Key levels I'm watching are the recent range boundaries. Electricity supply news and the fiscal outlook remain wildcards.